Hi Conor - we featured your excellent article in our weekly newsletter to friends, partners and clients --> https://278773.seu2.cleverreach.com/m/15968686. Thanks for your excellent work !
1) "A child sitting an exam may feel unconfident about their answer to question 17. Leaning over at their peer’s papers, they glimpse at what they wrote for question 17. Alas, it’s the same answer. Instantly they feel reassured and more confident— unbeknownst to the fact they both provided the wrong answer."
Incidentally, answering the same questions in the same wrong way is precisely how cheaters are caught. No matter what age, it feels more comfortable to be wrong but aligned with consensus than right but contrarian.
2)"At some point, every 100-bagger has a chart that looks like the ones I have shared below (with legends and labels removed for dramatic effect). You are likely to suffer multiple significant drawdowns, years—even decades— of somewhat flat performance, and uncertainty as leaders, consumer tastes, regulation, and business models evolve. In short, regardless of your hit rate, you are going to be challenged with sell decisions. It’s guaranteed."
Individual stocks are a hard game to play for this reason, and more often than not, investors would be better off buying index funds to avoid the uncertainty and being scared out of the stock right before a big runup. https://blog.inverteum.com/p/individual-stocks-fools-game
Hi Conor - we featured your excellent article in our weekly newsletter to friends, partners and clients --> https://278773.seu2.cleverreach.com/m/15968686. Thanks for your excellent work !
Appreciate the shoutout, thank you!
I'm glad there's solid evidence behind the idea that selling decisions are usually worse, because this has always been my personal Waterloo.
Sure many feel the same way.
1) "A child sitting an exam may feel unconfident about their answer to question 17. Leaning over at their peer’s papers, they glimpse at what they wrote for question 17. Alas, it’s the same answer. Instantly they feel reassured and more confident— unbeknownst to the fact they both provided the wrong answer."
Incidentally, answering the same questions in the same wrong way is precisely how cheaters are caught. No matter what age, it feels more comfortable to be wrong but aligned with consensus than right but contrarian.
2)"At some point, every 100-bagger has a chart that looks like the ones I have shared below (with legends and labels removed for dramatic effect). You are likely to suffer multiple significant drawdowns, years—even decades— of somewhat flat performance, and uncertainty as leaders, consumer tastes, regulation, and business models evolve. In short, regardless of your hit rate, you are going to be challenged with sell decisions. It’s guaranteed."
Individual stocks are a hard game to play for this reason, and more often than not, investors would be better off buying index funds to avoid the uncertainty and being scared out of the stock right before a big runup. https://blog.inverteum.com/p/individual-stocks-fools-game
Well said
thank you, great take!
After seeing the charts of 100 baggers I realized you need lots of luck or ironclad balls to hold.