The Good People of Britain will Always Stuff Their Faces with Pastry

Notes on Greggs PLC, a Market Leader Not Looking to Rest on its Laurels

“The UK economy may contract by 1.2% this year, but the good people of Britain will always stuff their faces with pastry.”

This is what I thought to myself after sifting through Greggs’ recent Q4 trading update¹. The UK is having a tough go of things, being the only G7 country yet to retrace its pre-pandemic output. Japan falls into that bucket too, but after imposing considerably harsher pandemic restrictions than the Brits. What's more, the consensus amongst institutions sees the nation’s GDP declining between 0.6% and 1.2% in 2023. Towards the end of 2022, the UK did surprise economists by putting up a couple of quarters of consecutive growth, but many feel they are simply delaying the inevitable; a 12-month-long recession.