Fool Me Once, Shame on You, Fool Me Twice Can't Place the Blame on You

Without learning from mistakes, we simply make mistakes with no value

This year I started writing a tangible journal, penning thoughts on particular themes or questions that cross my mind on any given day. I had figured that sharing a similar type of memo digitally might be a useful exercise in that tangible entries, those isolated to the pages within my journal, have no audience. Writing publicly can be a great way to generate feedback on one’s thoughts.

In Howard Marks’ latest memo, he describes a bull market as follows:

“In a bull market, favorable developments lead to price rises and lift investor psychology. Positive psychology induces aggressive behavior. Aggressive behavior leads to higher prices. Rising prices encourage rosier psychology and further risk-taking. This upward spiral is the essence of a bull market.  When it’s underway, it feels unstoppable. The most important thing about bull market psychology is that, as cited in the final bullet point above, most people take rising stock prices as a positive sign of things to come. Many are conv…