Dogmatic Beliefs

Why you can simultaneously be a realist, an optimist, and a contrarian

It’s 11:30 pm on a Tuesday. My partner is asleep in the next room and I am sitting with my laptop on the kitchen counter. I live in the centre of the city, in close proximity to an assortment of pubs as well as a train station and tram stop. The overflow of chatter, buses, and cars stopping and starting at red lights creep through the kitchen window. The flicker of candlelight and the glow of my screen is all that illuminate the room. I am finding that I do more of my writing in the late hours of the night these days. My daytime schedule has been so jammed the last few months; I've struggled to find the clarity or headspace I need to write. Naturally, work takes precedence during the day. I used to write feverously in the early mornings; in the same spot of the house I am writing now. The only difference was the absence of chatter and vehicles as the world hadn’t woken up yet. Absent the chirping of birds, the streets were still.

When things change, people have a tendency to adapt. Or as Ian Malcolm would say; “life always finds a way". Generations have found a way to overcome wars. The technology we all take for granted was once something humans had to “adapt” to. For all the talk about how fast progress seems to be coming, so fast some wonder how we will keep up, we always seem to manage. But taking a few steps back and considering change which is less grand in scale, more personal let’s say, you’ll find the same resilience, for the most part, amongst individuals. I don’t know if this is something hardwired into us. I have my doubts because there are some who will simply give up when faced with adversity. There are others who have never had to deal with real hardship. But for most people, when forced into an uncomfortable situation, the only thing they can do is adapt. What else is there to do?

There is a saying that there is beauty in the struggle. It can be interpreted in many ways. My own interpretation is that struggle is the precursor to something that brings happiness or relief. The struggle may only be appreciated in retrospect when it’s a memory and no longer our reality. It might be something that shapes someone. It could be a period in time that was gruelling but helped build the foundation for whatever is on the other side. The restaurant business is a notoriously difficult one with thin margins. Suppose it takes you seven years after you open your first spot to break even, turn a profit and start thinking about opening a second. I bet those seven years felt like shit at times; constantly flirting with death. But you can look back and appreciate how far you have come. Parenting, I can only imagine, sounds like the most difficult thing on the planet. More recently I have observed a sibling start the journey of parenthood and I am amazed at how the adaption muscle just kicks in. I think to myself “How do they find time to do all that?”. I am sure each day as a parent is filled with wonderful little moments that make it all worthwhile; first words, first steps, first day at school. But I am certain there can be moments when it’s hard to appreciate these things because the struggle takes over. Taking care of a child, working, paying bills, making time to see family and friends, preparing meals, and if you are lucky you might have some time to yourself.

When those kids leave the house and go start their own lives, I doubt many parents feel those moments of struggle as viscerally as they recollect the joy that came from raising children. In retrospect, I guess they look back on those times as some of the greatest moments of their lives. I think this is why they say there is beauty in the struggle. The caveat is that you tend to only appreciate the beauty when the struggle is over. Or when you get a moment of rest bite.

Circling back to adaptation. I’ve always believed that there are certain fictions we have to tell ourselves. The notion of ‘fake it till you make it’ fascinated me as a young adult. There are some who take that phrase and run with it under nefarious means, but I strongly believe it’s a powerful statement when used appropriately. If you struggle with confidence, you can trick yourself into appearing confident. Eventually, you might start to feel it too. This is the essence of faking it until you make it; the aphorism which suggests by mimicking confidence, competence, and an optimistic mindset, an individual can learn those qualities in their own life and achieve the results they desire. But I think the meaning has been lost nowadays; confused with negative connotations of pretending to be something you are not. Newsflash, everyone has to be something they are not before they become something they want to be. The mindset is supposed to make the journey from A to B more manageable. Many of these mindsets or “fictions” have their roots in optimism; which is a choice. It is a conscious decision to be an optimist; despite the other voice in your head telling you not to be.

Pessimism gets you nowhere. It’s uncomfortable to be around a pessimist, and I can’t imagine it being too fun an existence to constantly make the choice to see the bad in a situation. Optimists may be ridiculed for being ignorant to reality. This is where “realists” come in. They don’t associate with those glum pessimists. Nor do they see eye to eye with those insufferable, rose-lensed, optimists. They claim to accept each situation for what it is and prepare to deal with it accordingly. Contrarians are a rarer breed. There’s a hierarchy of contrarianship. Right at the bottom, swilling around in their own filth, are the ones who like the sound of being a contrarian. They tell their friends they are a contrarian; meaning they just like to disagree with the consensus, whatever the topic is. They are about as contrarian as an index investor. In fact, they are usually just annoying. At the top of the hierarchy, there are the actual contrarians. The ones who are independent thinkers and possess a strong belief in their own research and analysis. They are willing to take risks and go against the grain, but they realise that you have to pick your battles. They are not contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian. They are a contrarian when it matters, and are humble enough to admit when they are wrong.

I think it’s too dogmatic to hold yourself to the standards of any of these mindsets in isolation. I think they each have their advantages and disadvantages. Realism allows you to remain calm and assess a situation objectively. Optimism gives you the tenacity to always look forward, even when the situation might get others down. It allows you to lift yourself, and others, up. Contrarianism is basically the embodiment of a lesson an old accounting professor once engrained into my head; because he reminded us of it in every lecture. He would say; “always question why something is the way it is, ask why”. I think of contrarianism as an insatiable curiosity. Most people never bother to question the status quo. What happens when nobody bothers to question why things are the way they are? Complacency, ignorance, the list goes on. In accounting, everyone assumes the numbers are correct. Accountants put the numbers together, auditors look them over. They must be correct. Someone smart already did the due diligence. History has shown ignorance can persist for a long time, and that all it takes is one curious individual to topple a sparsely constructed Jenga tower of complacency.

So taking my professor’s lead, I ask; why do people define themself as optimists, realists, and contrarians? You can be a realist, an optimist, and a contrarian, all at the same time. I don’t care what a textbook says. The perspective you adopt naturally fluctuates; as all judgement is coloured by some emotion. It might be that each of these identities is reserved for different facets of your life.

Is it wise to be a realist with your spouse? I think part of the appeal of love is the absence of realism; the occasional detachment from reality. Reality can be tough. They say the world is built for two and to believe that notion defies the realist’s unromantic rebuttal of “no, it’s not”. It’s quite literally not made for two, but it’s more fun when you imagine it to be just so. As David Hume might say; logic is a slave of the passions. How about being an optimist in the stock market? I think it has its place; helping you maintain a long-term mindset. But to exhibit exclusive optimism would mean you fall for every investor presentation on the planet. You can be optimistic that a company is going to be around in 20 years, but you need to be discerning enough to decide whether it has the quality to do so. That requires objectivity, a little sprinkle of realism, and it doesn’t hurt to be a contrarian when you are confident the market is wrong. And pessimism has its uses too, despite my commentary earlier. With regard to managing expectations for yourself; tapping into a pessimist’s point of view can help you prepare for the worse. That’s not to say you necessarily have to expect the worse, but it helps to be aware and to be ready for it.

Thanks for reading,

Conor